For the first time since the dataset began, more Dubai tenants signed new leases than renewed old ones. A brokerage analysis of Dubai Land Department data, reported by Khaleej Times on 23 September, found that new leases exceeded renewals by 633 contracts in July and 2,139 in August. The same analysis says this has not happened in any month since the data starts in January 2023. The reason is price. Rents on new leases for the same building and unit type are 15.3% lower than in January, while renewal rents have fallen only around 1%. Tenants have worked out that moving is now cheaper than staying.
Supply explains part of it. According to a report citing the Dubai Land Department, Dubai completed 104 projects adding 24,537 new units in the first half of 2026, and the number of completed projects rose 38.7% year-on-year. New stock has to find tenants. The first place that competition shows up is the rent on a vacant unit, not the rent on an occupied one.
Money got more expensive at the same time. The US dollar was on track for its second consecutive weekly gain as markets added to bets on further Federal Reserve hikes, and long-term Treasury yields reached their highest levels in more than two decades. That is the tension this week. Rental income is softening at the margin just as the cost of the debt that income has to service is rising. Regulators in both Dubai and Abu Dhabi also made clear this week that building-use and certification rules will be enforced, and that limits the obvious ways a landlord might try to recover lost yield.
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Section 01
New Leases Outnumbered Renewals for the First Time, and New-Lease Rents Are 15.3% Below January
Dubai rental market, 2026 (brokerage analysis of DLD data, via Khaleej Times, 23 September 2026)
| Figure | |
|---|---|
| New leases above renewals, July | 633 contracts |
| New leases above renewals, August | 2,139 contracts |
| New leases registered, July / August | ~14,100 / ~15,600 |
| New-lease rents vs January (same building and unit type) | −15.3% |
| Renewal rents vs January | ~−1% |
| New leases, Jan–Aug vs same period 2025 | −1% |
| Renewals, Jan–Aug vs same period 2025 | −1% |
| Median new apartment lease rent, August | Dh94.6 per sq ft |
| Median new apartment lease rent, October 2025 peak | Dh103.1 per sq ft |
The detail matters more than the headline "up to 15%". The precise finding is that new-lease rents for the same building and unit type are 15.3% below January, while renewals are down only about 1%. Because both are compared with January, the two measures have moved around 14 percentage points apart in eight months. The median rent on new apartment leases was Dh94.6 per square foot in August, against an October 2025 peak of Dh103.1. The report calls that an 8.3% fall. On my arithmetic it is closer to 8.2%, which is a small difference but worth noting.
The volume data does not show a collapse in demand. New leases registered between January and August were only 1% below the same period in 2025, and renewals were also down 1%. What has changed is the mix: in July and August, more existing tenants chose to move than to stay.
By area, August new leases outnumbered renewals by 1,102 in Al Barsha South Fourth (which includes JVC), 609 in Business Bay, 598 in Al Merkadh, 564 in Dubai Marina and 342 in Downtown Dubai. In International City, Jebel Ali and Dubai Silicon Oasis, renewals still outnumbered new leases. A property portal's asking-rent data cited in the same report puts median annual asking rents at around Dh70,000 in JVC, Dh99,900 in Business Bay and Dh120,000 in Dubai Marina. The report also says rental searches rose 44% year-on-year over the summer, but it does not name the provider, so I give that figure little weight.
Two cautions apply. This is a brokerage's analysis of government data, not a DLD publication, so I weight it below first-party figures. And two months is a short run. Even so, the implication for anyone valuing a tenanted unit is direct. The rent a sitting tenant pays is no longer a reliable guide to what the unit would earn if it were re-let. Base your gross yield on the new-lease rent, which is 15.3% lower than in January, and treat any renewal premium above it as income you could lose at the next expiry.
The supply figures come from a report citing the Dubai Land Department, published by TradeArabia and syndicated on Zawya. That is a step removed from a primary DLD release. 104 projects were completed in the first half of 2026, adding 24,537 new units. The number of completed projects rose 38.7% on the same period in 2025 and their total investment value rose 52%. The report does not say what base the 38.7% applies to. It reads as the project count, and I have treated it that way rather than as a unit count.
One figure needs care. The report gives investment value as "exceeding AED111 billion ($29.3 billion)". Those two numbers do not match at the dirham peg, since $29.3 billion is nearer AED107.6 billion. I would use the dirham figure and treat the dollar conversion as unreliable.
As I noted in the September 19 edition, a brokerage forecast expected around 74,100 homes to complete in Dubai in 2026, and I suggested reading that as a ceiling. The DLD-derived first-half total of 24,537 units is, on my arithmetic, about 33% of that figure. To reach the forecast, the second half would have to deliver 49,563 units, twice the first-half pace. A back-loaded year is possible, since handovers often bunch towards December, but the more likely outcome is that the full year falls short of the ceiling.
The rental data above shows that the number does not have to be large to matter. Even at the first-half pace, the new stock is enough to put tenants in a position to negotiate in the areas with the most deliveries. If you are buying for income in a community with heavy handovers over the next twelve months, price your first-year rent at today's new-lease level, not at the level of existing leases.
Section 03
Dubai Recorded AED 11.185 Billion of Transactions in Five Days, and More Than a Third Was Mortgages
Dubai weekly transactions, 21–25 September (DLD data, via Arabian Business)
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Total transactions | AED11.185bn ($3bn) |
| Sales | AED6.41bn ($1.7bn), 2,426 transactions |
| Mortgages | AED3.86bn ($1bn) |
| Gifts | AED915m ($249m) |
| Top sale (Como Residences, Palm Jumeirah) | AED71.2m ($19.4m) |
According to Land Department data reported by Arabian Business, Dubai recorded AED11.185 billion ($3 billion) of transactions between 21 and 25 September. The components add up to the total: sales of AED6.41 billion across 2,426 transactions, mortgages of AED3.86 billion and gifts of AED915 million. The $3 billion headline is total activity. The sales figure alone is $1.7 billion.
On my arithmetic, mortgages made up about 34.5% of the week's total value and the average sale was roughly AED2.64 million. The three largest sales were all at Como Residences on Palm Jumeirah, at AED71.2 million, AED64.9 million and AED60.9 million. Together they came to AED197 million, or about 3% of the week's sales value. The top of the market is active, but it is not what drives the weekly total.
The weekly figures do not separate new purchase mortgages from refinancing, so the mortgage share is not a clean measure of leveraged buying. At AED3.86 billion in a single week, however, borrowed money is still a large part of Dubai's activity, and that is the part of the market most exposed to the rate move covered below.
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Section 04
Dubai Municipality Found 2,395 Occupancy and Construction Breaches in More Than 16,000 Inspections
Dubai Municipality has recorded 2,395 breaches relating to building use, occupancy and unauthorised construction, following more than 16,000 inspections in residential areas since early 2026. Of those, 451 have been fully rectified, 1,478 are going through corrective measures and strict action has been taken in 466 cases. Those three figures add up to the total. The Municipality made more than 800 visits across Al Warqa residential areas.
The breaches it highlighted were bachelor accommodation in areas where it is not permitted, several families occupying a single residential unit, and building work or alterations carried out without permits. The Municipality's Building Regulation and Permits Agency listed works that need a permit, and some would surprise many owners. They include demolishing non-structural walls, installing a kitchen window or serving hatch, moving internal partitions, converting a closed kitchen into an open one, and other changes to the internal layout. The published figures do not break the 2,395 breaches down by type.
This matters more now because of the rental data. A landlord whose new-lease rent has fallen may be tempted to recover the yield through partitioning, multiple occupancy or an unapproved reconfiguration, and those are exactly the practices being inspected. For anyone buying a secondary unit, check that every change to the original layout has a permit before you exchange. 2,395 recorded breaches suggests the Municipality will find unpermitted work, and once you own the unit, it becomes your breach.
Section 05
Abu Dhabi Has Given Owners Until November 30 to Obtain Occupancy Certificates, With Fines of Up to AED 1 Million
Abu Dhabi's Department of Municipalities and Transport has pushed the deadline for occupancy certificates out to November 30, extended from September 16. The report does not print the year. According to Arabian Business, the requirement applies to "owners of commercial and residential buildings, mixed-use towers, as well as so-called investment villas that are more than 30 years old". It is not clear from that wording whether the 30-year qualifier covers every category or only investment villas, and I would not assume it applies to all buildings until the department's own text confirms it.
Non-compliance may result in an administrative fine of up to AED 1 million ($272,294), and owners must also resolve all violations. That is a maximum, not a set penalty. The certificate is described as valid for five years, although the report adds that the period will depend on the property type. The Abu Dhabi Real Estate Centre will review municipal records and contact owners who have not complied, and municipalities will carry out field inspections.
No property is permanently exempt. Existing private residential villas that received a completion certificate before the resolution took effect are excluded for now. A second phase introduces conditional occupancy certificates, and in a third phase full requirements apply to all existing private villas and the conditional route is withdrawn. Abu Dhabi owners should use the time to November 30 to confirm their certificate status and fix any recorded violations, because the extension changes the date, not the maximum exposure of AED 1 million.
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Abu Dhabi real estate, H1 2026 (ADREC data, via Arabian Business)
| Figure | |
|---|---|
| Total real estate transactions | AED117bn ($31.9bn), +112% YoY |
| Sales transactions | AED86.1bn ($23.4bn), 16,838 deals |
| Residential sales | AED70.4bn ($19.2bn), 89% off-plan by value |
| Mortgage transactions | AED26.7bn ($7.3bn), 8,876 deals; value up more than 33% |
| Foreign direct investment | AED13.8bn ($3.8bn), +309% YoY |
| Non-resident investor nationalities | 116 |
Some coverage has described this as ADREC's 50% rule, which is inaccurate. According to Arabian Business, "CBUAE regulations cap loan to value ratios on off-plan purchases at 50% across all buyer categories". ADREC's new registration system "does not increase the maximum permitted leverage". What it changes is when financing can be registered. Buyers can arrange mortgage finance before handover after funding 50% of an eligible unit's value. Down payments must come from the buyer's own resources, the debt burden ratio is capped at 50% of gross salary and qualifying regular income, and loan proceeds go directly into the project's escrow account. Aldar and Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank completed the first registered transaction on September 4 2026.
The market this applies to is large. Residential sales reached AED70.4 billion ($19.2 billion) in the first half, with off-plan making up 89% of that value. Total transactions were AED117 billion, up 112%. Note that the AED86.1 billion sales figure and the AED70.4 billion residential figure measure different things and should not be compared directly. The report attributes the numbers to ADREC data but does not link the primary release.
The escrow requirement is sensible from a buyer-protection point of view. For investors, the point is that bank finance now arrives earlier in an off-plan purchase. The buyer then pays interest on a unit that earns nothing until handover, in a market where 89% of residential value is off-plan and rates are rising. Model that period of carrying cost explicitly.
The dollar index slipped 0.23% to 101.05 on Friday but had gained almost 1% on the week, reaching a two-month high and heading for its first back-to-back weekly gains since June. Markets have sharply repriced the outlook for US rates since the Fed tightened last week, and long-term Treasury yields reached their highest levels in more than two decades. Other central banks are moving the same way. The Bank of Japan raised rates last week to their highest level in 31 years, and the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to raise its rate by 25 basis points to 4.60%.
The source does not mention the UAE, so what follows is my own analysis. The dirham is pegged to the dollar, so the UAE follows US policy in full. If markets are right about further Fed hikes, UAE base rates and EIBOR follow, and variable-rate mortgages reprice with them. Currency matters too. With sterling at $1.324, near a three-month low, and the euro at $1.139, dirham-priced property costs British and European buyers more than it did a month ago.
The article does not give a Fed rate level or a probability for the next move, and I will not supply one. The direction is enough to act on: assume at least one more hike when you stress-test variable-rate debt.
According to The National, Brent settled 2.14% lower at $104.30 a barrel on Friday. It had closed at $106.60 on Thursday and came close to $108 during that session. WTI settled 2.33% lower at $92.41. Over the week Brent rose 0.43%, while WTI fell nearly 8% on the prospect of a US ban on diesel exports. Investors weighed the possibility of an Iran truce, but the report describes negotiators exploring a phased deal, not an agreement in force. Kpler's preliminary data counted 13 crossings of Hormuz on Thursday and 27 through Bab Al Mandeb. Spot gold fell to $4,285.29 an ounce, down more than 2% on the week.
My sources disagree on the Saudi East-West pipeline. The National says it has been pumping about 4 million barrels a day, that it was shut after drone attacks on September 10, and that reopening has only been reported. Economy Middle East describes the operation as temporarily disrupted. I cannot confirm whether it is running now. The UAE's pipeline to Fujairah continues to be used to bypass Hormuz.
The same Economy Middle East piece summarises a Foreign Affairs analysis by Richard Haass and Carolyn Kissane. It sets out a scenario in which oil climbs to $150–$200 a barrel if further attacks disrupt regional energy infrastructure, which could trigger a global recession. The article stresses that this is an escalation scenario, not a forecast. The authors estimate that oil exports through Hormuz had fallen to about half their pre-war level by August. The IEA puts pre-conflict flows through the strait at around 20 million barrels a day in 2025, roughly one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade. The authors' estimate of about $110 in September is higher than The National's settlement prices, and I rely on the settlement prices.
The piece also describes the policy problem clearly. Energy costs push inflation up while weaker activity increases pressure for monetary support. For a UAE property investor, high oil supports government revenue and local liquidity, but the tail risk arrives through global rates and inflation. A Brent price of $104.30 that depends on supply fears is not a reason to take on more debt.
In closing
Final View for Dubai Property Investors
This week showed who has pricing power in Dubai's rental market at the margin. A tenant who can move for a 15.3% lower rent in the same building has the upper hand, and the 24,537 units delivered in the first half give tenants more places to move to. That finding comes from a brokerage's reading of DLD data covering two months, so I treat it as a strong signal rather than a settled trend. I would not ignore it.
There are four things I would do differently this week. First, revalue any income assumption against current new-lease rents rather than the rent currently being paid, particularly in JVC, Business Bay, Dubai Marina and Downtown, where tenants moved in the largest numbers. With renewals down only about 1%, sitting tenants are paying rents well above the new-lease market, and that premium is at risk at each expiry. Second, do not try to recover lost yield through partitioning, multiple occupancy or unpermitted layout changes. Dubai Municipality has recorded 2,395 breaches this year, and Abu Dhabi's occupancy-certificate regime carries fines of up to AED 1 million. Third, stress-test variable-rate debt at least one hike above today's rate, because markets are pricing further Fed tightening and the peg passes it through in full. Fourth, for off-plan purchases in either emirate, model the interest you will pay before handover as a real cost. The 50% loan-to-value cap has not changed, but in Abu Dhabi finance can now be registered earlier in the purchase.
None of this argues for leaving the market. Weekly activity of AED11.185 billion shows buyers are still active. It does argue for buying on the rent a new tenant will pay, not on the rent in the current lease.
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Published 26 September 2026 by Stephen James Mitchell MBA. Market figures quoted reflect the data available at that date.
